GlobalFoodCrisis.com
Imports & Disruption

Import Dependency Risk Calculator

Estimate shortage risk and time-to-impact when imported food supply is disrupted. This model uses import share, disruption severity/duration, domestic supply, and available stocks.

Planning tool only. If you have category-level data (wheat, rice, cooking oil), run separate scenarios for each staple.

Imports Disruption Stocks
Quick links
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Inputs Demand vs Supply

Enter import dependency and disruption inputs

Start with total annual food requirement (for a staple or basket), the share normally supplied by imports, and how severe the disruption is. Add stocks and a domestic ramp-up factor to estimate the shortfall and when it starts.

Total annual demand/need for the item being modeled.
Percent of normal supply that comes from imports.
Example: 50% = half of imported volume unavailable.
How long reduced imports persist.
Lag before disruption hits shelves (shipping + inventory pipeline).
Public/private stocks that can be drawn down to cover gaps.
Substitution: domestic production + alternative suppliers.
If enacted, reduces demand and thus shortfall.
Used to estimate economic impact of the shortfall (same currency).
Staple default; set lower for vegetables.
Some values were out of range and were clamped to valid limits.
Model logic: normal imports = demand × import share. Disruption removes a fraction of imports. Stocks cover the gap until depleted; domestic ramp-up and rationing reduce the net gap.
Results Time-to-impact

Shortage risk outputs

See the shortfall magnitude, how long stocks can buffer, and an estimated time-to-impact.

Risk level

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based on shortfall severity

Time to first shortfall

—

lead time + stock buffer

Peak monthly shortfall

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during disruption

Total shortfall (over disruption)

—

cumulative deficit

Component Amount Notes
Normal imports — Demand × import share
Imports lost — Normal imports × disruption severity
Replaced (ramp-up) — Percent of import loss replaced
Demand reduced — Rationing/demand management
Net monthly gap — Gap after ramp-up & rationing
Stocks buffer — Months stocks can cover net gap

Value of shortfall

—

if price provided

Calories at risk

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if kcal/kg provided

Narrative summary
Enter values to see a narrative summary.
Want the next upgrade? We can add a month-by-month timeline chart (stocks drawdown), multiple staples, and a link that carries “calories at risk” into the Calories Deficit calculator.