GlobalFoodCrisis.com
Soils & Long-Term Output

Land Degradation Yield Loss Calculator

Estimate how erosion, salinity, and depleted soils reduce long-term output over a 10-year view. Model a “do nothing” trajectory versus a restoration trajectory.

Planning tool only. Use local soil tests, salinity maps, erosion rates, and agronomy guidance for high-stakes decisions.

Inputs Trajectory

Define your 10-year soil trajectory

This model combines three common degradation drivers into an annual yield drag: erosion salinity soil organic matter depletion. You can also model a restoration program that improves soil health over time.

Starting output before degradation effects accumulate.

Loss from topsoil erosion & structure decline.
Irrigation salts, waterlogging, poor drainage.
Organic matter depletion, compaction, biology loss.
Use for compounding heat/drought risk not captured elsewhere.

When soil rehab practices are implemented.
Improvement from cover crops, compost, drainage, leaching, etc.
Limits recovery realism (e.g., can recover up to +10% vs baseline).

Used to estimate value of lost output (same currency).
If unsure, 5–10% is a common planning range.
Some values were out of range and were clamped to valid limits.
Model logic: annual yield is multiplied by (1 − total drag) each year. After restoration starts, we add a recovery factor up to a cap. This creates a transparent “do nothing vs restore” trajectory.
Results 10-year view

10-year output projection

Compare cumulative production under “do nothing” vs restoration. See year-10 output and total losses avoided.

Year 10 output (do nothing)

end of horizon

Year 10 output (restoration)

end of horizon

10-year cumulative output (do nothing)

total over 10 years

10-year cumulative output (restoration)

total over 10 years

Total loss avoided by restoration

difference (restore − do nothing)

Net degradation drag

annual yield drag

Year Do nothing Restoration

Value of avoided loss (NPV)

if price provided

Total value loss (do nothing)

10-year value gap vs Year 0 baseline

Narrative summary
Enter values to see a narrative summary.
Want the next upgrade? We can add soil-test inputs (EC, SOM, pH), crop-specific salinity thresholds, and a restoration cost module for ROI.